Pretty much, Variety is reporting what my title suggests. Here are the ways Hollywood is going to do it:

• Limit movies in the $35 million to $70 million range.
• Financial partners are no longer an option -- they're required.
• Trim marketing budgets.
• Make fewer movies.

"If you look at the $40 million to $70 million budget film, they are so difficult," says one studio chief operating officer. "They rarely have top box office stars, and they're such risky territory because you have to spend $25 million on P&A, so it's a huge investment. It's really hard to get that back." So this means more of those noise and effects movies and less of the independent stuff.

Scott from Cinematech says "Studios already know how to make and market expensive, big-budget projects. But what about the $10 million feature film - or the $100,000 video series for cell phones?" Definetely sounds like they are abandoning a big piece of future markets.

Mike at HD For Indies has this – "If Wedding Crashers can be made for $30 to $40 million (plus a huuuuuuuge long running advertising budget - it feels like I must have been seeing those first ads in high school) - why can't entirely entertaining movies be made with those kinds of budgets consistently? They had some decent name brand actors in there, plenty of locations, some good gags, no need for tons of VFX work. It was simple, it was FUNNY AS HELL as was The 40 Year Old Virgin."

Here is my take, Hollywood does things the same way they did 50-60 years ago. They create movies like creating an event. Special story with special people doing special things that have never seen before and will just happen this once. But they have done it so often that it has become formulaic, boring. The audience sees nothing special with these event/movies. But Hollywood continues to make them because it is easier for them to market such a movie. However, each time (or how often) they do this, they actually bite the hand that feeds them. That is why you need the other guys, the lesser events, to create diversity in the market. Now mind you, these "lesser" films will continued to be made but it will just be harder whether it be in production or in marketing.

If you were wondering about the pic, I just want to give kudos to the guy for having the right idea.

Holographic storage has been on the radar for a while. Very promising technology that is sure to change the world of storage when it does enter the market.  The specs are impressive: 1.6 TB (as in 1600 GB) of storage with transfer rates of 120 MBPS with a 50+ year media archive life and random data access. The media is expected to have the lowest cost per gigabyte of any commercial quality removable storage. So today, when I ran into these two articles, I was once again hopeful that the much talked about launch date of 2006 could become a reality.

1) Maxell in a joint venture with InPhase Technologies has announced the release of a Holographic optical recording device. The first generation of holographic media with 300 GB of storage capacity and a 20 MBPs Transfer Rate is scheduled for release in late 2006.

2) "Turner Entertainment Networks has its lenses focused on holographic storage for the future of storing and retrieving its movies, cartoons and commercial spots. The network giant has completed a test of the cutting-edge storage technology, which it said will soon move the company away from tape- and disk-based storage." So they have a working prototype, nice!!

If all this does work out, I really could not care less about the Blu-ray vs HD DVD battle that is currently raging for the future of the storage market. Holographic media has them beaten hands down.

Since the Brit's aren't out shopping like mad (are they?) they've still got some significant news around the world of Digital Video.  BBC2 says they're going to start simulcasting their programming via the web.  The service, to be used with their 'MyBBCPlayer,' will offer streaming video at the same time it is broadcast, with some additional downloads.

A quick trip to the BBC2's website shows Family Guy and American Dad as two of their shows, so obviously before this can go through they've got to work out some way to either restrict certain locales, or they've worked out some great licensing deals.  Enjoy your Family Guy at 10:40PM (GMT, of course.)  Seriously though, this is some great stuff.  One step closer to IPTV.  Can you imagine your content having the chance to compete with BBC2?

In part one of our interview with Mike Curtis, published yesterday, we chatted with him about the emergence of HD filmmaking, economics of shooting with HD, HDV, HVX200, archiving in the tapeless future, codecs, open source formats.

One of the interesting things about what you do is that you consult a lot independent productions in post-production which means also pre-production. Because what you do in pre-production will ultimately make the job easier in post. Can you share some of these experiences ? And more importantly what should the filmmaker pay attention to in pre-production? What questions should they be asking so post is not a mess?

Good question. In general, THINK IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH. Not just "Oh, I'm going to shoot on this because it is cheap and the quality is decent." These days, if trying to be clever and cost effective with HD, it is not just what camera are you shooting on? Precisely, what mode are you shooting? What editing system are you planning on using, what is your intended deliverable, and do you plan on doing the final online yourself or on your offline gear, or are you planning on doing your online elsewhere. All matter significantly.

While it is possible to mix and match workflow pieces, there can be significant costs involved. For instance, a client originally priced out getting their SD 24p 16:9 project color corrected on an eQ, because that was the perceived "better" solution - but the bid was for $30K since they had to re-acquire all the footage again, and the eQ doesn't handle the DVX100A's Advanced Pulldown mode, so all the footage had to be recapture and converted via FCP at the facility's rate - AWFUL!

Yeah, in general, think it all the way through, have a KNOWN plan, know what camera, shooting frame size and frame rate and pulldown (if applicable), FCP vs. Avid for editing, and how well is that Avid or FCP rig set up.

Common problems:
 - shooting with DVX100a and shooting 3:2 pulldown rather than Advanced Pulldown (bad/dumb/not recommended if editing FCP)
- capturing your 24p DV at 30i if you want a 24p master (dumb!)
- shooting 30p if wanting a 24p master (ugh!)
- using 24p on the new JVC GY-HD100U and thinking you're editing 24p on Final Cut Pro - think again! Only in the last week or two has software shipped to allow that to work in any vaguely efficient manner (LumiereHD in beta now) - you categorically cannot capture 24p HD100U footage into FCP - you get NOTHING AT ALL, not even 24p on 30i.

Or, shooting HDCAM and thinking you can "FireWire it in like the Varicam, right?" NOOO!! Doesn't work that way. Make sure you have the storage, the throughput, the hardware, the right version of the software, etc.

Very interesting interview with George Lucas by The Hollywood Reporter.

THR: There are definitely some dynamics that are changing the economics of the business. What do you think of Mark Cuban's idea of releasing films simultaneously at home and in theaters?
Lucas: I think it'll happen -- it'll have to happen.

THR: Really? Because of the economics?
Lucas: Because of piracy. It's the only way you can stop piracy; there is no other way. You have to get a very, very aggressive enforcement program so that people do have consequences to stealing, but you also have to be able to offer it to them (in the home) for the same price they can get it on the street. It won't be DVDs -- DVDs aren't going to be around too much longer. If you can get it at home for $2, then why would you go on the street and get a bad version?

Mr. Lucas with all respect, piracy is not the reason why films will eventually be released simultaneously at home and theater. People simply prefer watching the movies at home, which is sad but true. There seems to be a lot of piracy paranoia going around Hollywood.

(via HDforindies)

HD for Indies has quickly become one of the most important websites for digital filmmaking. Whether it be HD, DV, Apple or Adobe, the man behind the blog/site, Mike Curtis provides an experienced, thoughtful, unbiased, truly independent point of view, all the while learning and teaching with his readers. Mr. Curtis has been in digital media production for over 15 years producing content for everything from cell phones to Hollywood movies. He has recently partnered to create Color Cafe, a HD post-production house (based in Austin, TX) that has an emphasis on Color Correction with Indie Filmmakers in mind. My chat with him covered topics such as the future of HD; the positives and negatives of HD; how filmmakers can better plan their post-production workflows; archiving in the age of tapeless acquisition; Apple's Final Cut studio; Adobe;  upcoming technologies whether it be camera's, codecs or software; and the list goes on. Because of the length of the interview, the conversation will span over two installments.

So how did HD for Indies begin? I understand you were heavy into graphics and After Effects. How & why did you make the transition to writing and blogging everyday?

How did it begin! I had been doing motion graphics/ VFX/ compositing for years and was hitting two problems: one was burnout, and second was the glass ceiling in that market. I was looking for something new to leverage my skills and not be a commodity. A good friend, Craig Negoescu of OpenLabs, suggested that I should do something to "build the Mikey brand" and another friend suggested I do that by starting a blog. A few months before that, I'd realized that utilizing HD for indie filmmaking was a very interesting thing that I wanted to get into. Glue all those together, plus a desire to have all my research in one place, and HD For Indies was born.

Why HD specifically?

For starters, the DV revolution was well documented and well "fed" as a market - there wasn't a ton of new ground to cover there. HD was new, tricky, difficult and expensive - a good set of challenges to sink my software and hardware teeth into. Anybody can cut SD on whatever box they've got, but HD was quite different.

Many people dispute the validity of blogs, whether it is true journalism. And yet no once can argue the success or the relevance of your blog to digital filmmakers. Is the blog format best suited for topics such as this? Or is it something where you were the right man for the job, showing up at the right time?

I think it is more the latter - luck, timing, and an insane desire on my part to learn everything I could. Also, the fact that I gave myself permission to pull myself off the market and dedicate myself to research. Giving myself permission to go through a grad school program, but one of my own devising. No school is as up on this stuff as the web allows one to be.

As for the validity of blogs, I think it is a perfect fit for what I'm trying to do - extremely timely information, freed from advertising/sponsor influence. It is tremendously gratifying to be able to write whatever I want to about any subject I choose. I started with the nuts and bolts of the hardware/software, but I'm getting more interested in the rest of the equation - how are films distributed, what's the next gen distribution format, how will the Internet play into marketing, promoting, producing/making, and ultimately distributing indie movies. It would be fun to be more involved in multi-million dollar features, but I'm not there yet, so I serve this underserved market as best I can.

Funny you say you've been to college again, because I feel like I am in college again when I visit your site. There is so much to learn about HD that it is almost overwhelming.

It is overwhelming - just keeping track of all my newsfeeds and sources and responding to email could very well be a 6+ hour a day thing. So I have to be incredibly efficient about it if I want to do something else, such as my new biz ventures.

It seems like every other week a HD camera is born. HD captures a lot of mind share on online tech sites. And yet most of the public is far from from being able to watch true HD. If anything, the biggest growing trend in viewing video is to watch it online where quality is a non-issue. People seem okay with watching little 320x240 movies or shows. They why the transition? DV seems more than able to handle this new growth.

While $15,000 might not seem 'affordable' to any DV enthusiast, to DV pros, $15,000 for a direct-to-disk HD recorder is a pretty fair deal.  CineForm and Wafian released a new recorder to take your HDV footage direct to disk, and straight to edit.  The only caveat?  Straight to edit in Adobe Premiere.  You might be asking yourself, why Premiere?  CineForm's codec is Premiere's intermediate codec for HDV.  Score one for Adobe, but kind of seems a little like a disadvantage for the product's usability.  Everyone else will have to transcode out of CineForm to their favorite codec.  For reals.  I think it's stupid too, but I'm not making a $15,000 system.

Tomarrow, the Xbox 360 hits store shelves, and we've heard Microsoft's promise that the Xbox 360 will be more than just a game system, it will be a digital media hub.  For now, at least, the digital media hub isn't capable of playing content from the Internet.  The Xbox 360 will act as a 'media extender.'  The box will play TV content recorded from your Media Center Edition PC, but no one is saying whether it will end up playing podcasts/vodcasts.

Sony says they've finished authoring the first Blu-Ray disc for mass duplication.  And the bonus: it's my favorite movie (psyche!)  Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle will be distributed as a test disc to BD manufacturing facilities.  While Blu-ray test discs are being distributed, consumers won't see Charlie's Angels, or any other Blu-ray hardware/software till next spring.

Clear Channel says they're planning on installing new digital video displays in North American shopping malls to display ads.  Next week, New Yorkers and Los Angeleans will see the displays as early as next week, with Clear Channel rolling the new ad delivery mechanism to 200 markets total.

The big question though, is this a sign of the times (wink, wink) or is it yet another media annoyance?  For me, I see it as another place where digital video professionals are needed, but balancing my need for work with my distaste of excessive advertising is difficult.  What do you think?

I love my Netflix, as many of you know, but I hate Sony who recently found themselves in controversy (1, 2) because their music CD's installed DRM into your computer which is close to impossible (till recently) to erase. Besides hating the fact that some company feels the need to install something on your system, the DRM has also made it easier for someone to hack into your computer. This is the mindset that Sony follows, partly because they are the content owners as well as hardware-makers. They are constantly compromising the rights of the consumer so they can keep all their balls floating up in the air. Look at their hardware, they usually use their own proprietary formats. The notion of open source or open formats is lost on them. That is why I stay away from anything Sony. I wish I didn't have to because some of their camera's are really sweet but I am paranoid that Sony and its formats will find a way to screw me.

So it was with sadness that I read the news that Netflix has committed itself to the Blu-ray, which is a format created by Sony, over HD DVD in the format war for the future Hi-Def DVD's. Netflix says "As many know there’s been a format war. Two formats have been proposed as a successor to DVD, one sponsored by Warner primarily and one sponsored by Sony. Warner is HD DVD and Sony is Blu-ray. I think it’s pretty clear that Blu-ray has won. Even Warner has agreed to license and to release technology to Blu-ray, only Universal hasn’t made a commitment at this point, so I think the format wars are a thing of the past and I think it’s going to be Blu-ray. I think the content will get priced at a 20% premium. I think it’s going to roll out slowly over time." Damn, prepare your computers for some sneaky DRM.

Also check out this article for more quotes from Netflix (some really interesting quotes there).

Wow.  That's all I can say. NBC-Universal says they're going to release 100 movies for 24-hour 'rental' on Wurld Media's PeerImpact service.  Their press release says they'll be offered commercial free, and in some sort of 24-hour rental window.  No download price released, but the movie selection doesn't seem to be skimping, with recent hits like "Meet the Fockers" and an upcoming release of "The 40-year-old Virgin."  I'm pretty excited, not so much that this is a super great move, we've still got a lot of problems with the fragmented market, but nice to see SOME progress.  Right now, Wurld Media's site doesn't reflect the change, but we'll look at the software in-depth with today's casual software Friday.

Business Model Note: Hey, all you entreprenuers out there, I've got a sweet business model for explotation!  Someone make this same idea work with independent content, and sell millions!  Think about it, a cult hit like Napoleon Dynamite distributed online exclusively first, then distributed in theaters, DVD and the sort.

Talk on fair use is continuing. The House Subcommittee on Commerce, Trade, and Consumer Protection is still trying to decide whether or not it's legal for us to make personal copies of the media we buy, whether it be physical or digital copies.

The H.R. 1201 Bill is one of the main players in this discussion. It's basically a bill that states that 1. it's not a violation of copyright law to obtain access to media in order to make non-infringing use of the work and 2. making hardware or software that lets us distribute media for non infringing use is okay.

Lots to discuss. The one idea that came up was having limited fair-use copying - much like what iTunes does. But that's easy to get around for those who are technically savvy. Build a better mouse trap - you get a smarter mouse.

But how about instead of trying to trap mice, figuring out how mice can work for everyone's benefit?

Aja released a new capture card today, the Aja Xena LH/LS.  To me, the biggest benefit of the Xena (not the Lucy Lawless variety) allows graphics/motion graphics users to directly capture video in their applications.  The LH variety offers HD support, as well as PCI-Express support, while the LS just kicks it in SD.  Capture cards are SOOOOO last century, and I think they can stay there @ $1799 for the LH, and $999 for the LS.  I used an Aja IO/ IO LA last year on a weekly basis, and I must say I was less than impressed.  They are inexpensive compared to Cinewave, but I'd rather just rock firewire.

Seems like we've been talking a lot about on-demand, and IPTV to the desktop, but not too much about IPTV to the TV.  SBC says they're planning to roll out an IPTV service in January, with limited release.  A more broad release should happen in mid-2006, with full deployment in 2007.  "Project Lightspeed" delivers IPTV through either Fiber-to-the-home(FTTH) or Fiber-to-the-node, with copper wires traversing the last bit to the home.
If IPTV and content on the web aren't the phrases of 2006, I've got another one: market fragmentation. 
Ultimately, for everyday content producers, this could be a good thing.  They've got integration with Yahoo! and Cingular.  They give an example of taking a photo on your Cingular phone, uploading it to Yahoo! and then getting it on your TV with Project Lightspeed.  If you could do that, creating an Internet-based TV channel wouldn't be too difficult.  Yahoo! has Launch, and maybe they'll buy another Flickr-style service for video.  If that happens, it's possible we'd see an independent TV channel, ala Blip.TV or Veoh.